Ocala Real Estate Talk

Archive for the ‘Market Reports’ Category

Home sales in Ocala/Marion County were up over November. That’s not a surprise as we are going into Snowbird season. We don’t have an off season like winter in northern areas but we do have more business in the winter than the summer. The worse the winter is up north the better it is for selling homes here in Ocala.

IS THE WORST BEHIND US?

The following analysis is from Michael White and Ocala Valuation Services a local appraiser.

Based on the declining amount of inventory, Marion County may be near the bottom for real estate values. Values have continued to decline, although at the slowest rate since 2007. Meanwhile inventory levels have been reduced substantially. In 2011, the Marion County Multiple Listing Service (OMCAR) saw more than 4,300 single-family homes sold. This is the highest number since 2006, when more than 4,700 homes were sold. At the end of 2008, Marion County had a 26 month supply of single-family inventory, compared to an 18 month supply at the end of 2009, a 13 month supply at the end of 2010 and a 9 month supply at the end of last year. Absorption rates have increased from 215 per month in 2008, to 268 in 2009, 333 in 2010 and 361 last year.

Several areas are noted to be under-supplied at present, including Marion Oaks,Silver Springs Shores and the 34479 zip code in NE Ocala. Marion Oaks currently has less than a four month supply while Silver Springs Shores has slightly more than a three month supply. At the end of 2011, Silver Springs Shores and Marion Oaks accounted for 8% of the available inventory recorded in the OMCAR database. 21% of all residential properties sold in 2011 through OMCAR were located in these two subdivisions as well.

Of all of the data analyzed, the reduction in distress properties (foreclosure and short sales) seemed to stand out the most. Distress sales accounted for 39% of all sales countywide in 2009, 51% in 2010 and 47% in 2011. At the end of 2011, only 21% of all active listings were marketed as distress properties.

OK, this is where I tell you that now is the time to buy. Call me, email me or better yet use my Ocala Dream Home Finder.

In November there were 306 residential sales on the Ocala/Marion County MLS. That’s up from October but down from previous months this year. The most noticeable thing is the lack of foreclosure sales. I can’t remember when we had only 51 foreclosures sell in a month. If you look at the above link you’ll see a decline from around 150 foreclosure sales per month to this months low. There is supposed to be a shadow inventory. That is homes foreclosed on by banks that haven’t been put on the market. It will be interesting to see if foreclosure sales pick up in 2012.

The winter is the big home selling season here in Ocala. Unlike up north we don’t have an off season but we do have prime time and that’s winter. The worse the winter is up north the better my sales are here in Ocala. I’m expecting a great winter. I have 4 homes under contract and I’m making appointments for January and February.

Statistics used for this blog post are from the Ocala Marion County MLS and are deemed to be accurate at the time this blog was written but are not guaranteed. All information is time sensitive and subject to change without notice. Home sales are for Marion County only and do not include FSBO, homes sold by builders or by auction that were not  listed on the MLS, commercial properties or vacant land.

Ocala area home sales were down in October compared to last month. In September there were 360 sales which is 77 more than October. Almost all of the difference was in the sub $100,000- range. Foreclosures are way down from the spring of the year with only 73 sales this month. Inventory is holding steady after a huge drop in the first months of this year.

Have Ocala home prices bottomed out and will there be a big rebound as in this article in today’s Ocala Star Banner? I don’t see how prices can go much lower but I also think several things have to happen before prices will go up too.

1. Out of area buyers have to be able to sell their existing homes.

2. Ocala unemployment has to go way down from the current 12% so locals can buy a house. You can’t buy a house, no matter how cheap, without income.

3. Inventory has to go down considerably in order for prices to rise. More than 6 months inventory is a buyers market. Inventory would have to drop from todays 3700 units to around 2000.

4. The foreclosure inventory, especially newer foreclosures, need to be sold off. Unemployment has to go down to keep more homes from being foreclosed. Banks have to stop using foreclosures and short sales as comparables when doing appraisals. Never ending foreclosures killed the Ocala real estate market.

I do think there is a growing pent up demand for new homes, especially in the 55+ communities. However buyers don’t seem to understand that builders can’t compete on price with current resales.

We are entering Snow Bird season which is great for home selling in Ocala. Winter is an excellent time to sell and if you’re sick of northern winters it’s a great time to buy.

Statistics used for this blog post are from the Ocala Marion County MLS and are deemed to be accurate at the time this blog was written but are not guaranteed. All information is time sensitive and subject to change without notice. Home sales are for Marion County only and do not include FSBO, homes sold by builders or by auction that were not  listed on the MLS, commercial properties or vacant land.

Ocala area home sales have been pretty steady since June, plus or minus 5%. Active listings have remained about the same since June after dropping around 1,000 units earlier this year. Foreclosures are down about 30% from early 2011. Short sales always seem to be about the same.

You can see all my market reports and compare them month to month yourself at Ocala Home Sales. I think you’ll see that we are at the bottom of the market.

Statistics used for this blog post are from the Ocala Marion County MLS and are deemed to be accurate at the time this blog was written but are not guaranteed. All information is time sensitive and subject to change without notice. Home sales are for Marion County only and do not include FSBO, homes sold by builders or by auction that were not  listed on the MLS, commercial properties or vacant land.

Sales in August were up by 1o% from July. Inventory is down by only 30 homes. Earlier this year inventory was dropping every month but it seems to have reached a plateau, at least nor now. Foreclosures are down by quite a bit from earlier this year. We’ll have to see if this is temporary or the beginning of a trend. Short sales seem more or less the same over the last several months.

Sales in July were similar to past months.  The total number of active listings declined again but not as much as previous months.  Foreclosures are down quite a bit but you really can’t make judgements on just one month. You need top watch for trends.

I’ve been saying all year long that the big news is that the number of active listings is declining. To illustrate that point I looked back to my August 2010 market report and there were 5,464 active listing 12 months ago.

Statistics used for this blog post are from the Ocala Marion County MLS and are deemed to be accurate at the time this blog was written but are not guaranteed. All information is time sensitive and subject to change without notice. Home sales are for Marion County only and do not include FSBO, homes sold by builders or by auction that were not  listed on the MLS, commercial properties or vacant land.

June home sales in the Ocala Marion County market were pretty much the same as May. The big news once again is the steady decline in the number of active listings.

It’s not just my opinion that the market is improving. The following is an excerpt from a newsletter that I get from Micheal White a local appraiser. Visit his Ocala Appraisals web site.  He has nice charts and analysis by zip codes.

For the past several years Marion Oaks and Silver Springs Shores have been the driving forces in the Marion County real estate market, however the influence of these subdivisions appears to be subsiding. Inventory levels have switched from vastly over-supplied to a shortage of single-family housing. Marion Oaks has an approximate supply of four months of inventory while Silver Springs Shores has less than a three month supply. Combined, these subdivisions accounted for 21.9% of all sales recorded through the Ocala/Marion County Association of Realtor’s Website (OMCAR) in Q2 of 2011, compared to 23.4% in Q2 of 2010. Values have continued to decline in both communities, although at a much slower pace than in recent years. I would expect declines to moderate even further if inventory levels remain at their current rates or decline even further.

Countywide, inventory levels have dropped from a peak of 26 months in 2008 to a current inventory level of 9.2 months. Absorption rates have increased from 215 per month in 2008 to 387 per month for the second quarter of this year.  The declines in prices should begin to subside further within the next year if inventory levels continue to decline.

The bottom line for the local market is that values are still declining but brighter days may be on the horizon. Several of the markets included in this report saw values increase, which may be a harbinger of things to come for the remaining markets.

Statistics used for this blog post are from the Ocala Marion County MLS and are deemed to be accurate at the time this blog was written but are not guaranteed. All information is time sensitive and subject to change without notice. Home sales are for Marion County only and do not include FSBO, homes sold by builders or by auction that were not  listed on the MLS, commercial properties or vacant land.

We had an excellent month for home sales here in Ocala for May. May’s 400 home sale’s is the 2nd best month this year. The real news, and this is something I don’t see in the papers or on TV, is that the number of active listings keeps going down, When I started my blog in January 2009 we had 6500 listings. Today we have 4044 listings. It is months of inventory that defines a buyers market. I definitely don’t see prices going up but I can’t imagine them going down much more either. I do think selection will become limited if the number of active listings keeps shrinking, especially when you take into account that there is very little new construction and there hasn’t been much at all since 2008.

Statistics used for this blog post are from the Ocala Marion County MLS and are deemed to be accurate at the time this blog was written but are not guaranteed. All information is time sensitive and subject to change without notice. Home sales are for Marion County only and do not include FSBO, homes sold by builders or by auction that were not  listed on the MLS, commercial properties or vacant land.

Home sales were down from last month but that’s not surprising. March was the biggest month for sales since the market crashed. April is actually a great month in my opinion.

The big news is that inventory seems to be on a steady decline. As of today there are 4178 homes for sales on the Ocala Marion County MLS. That’s a huge decline from the dark days of 07-08 when there were over 7,000 active listings.

If you are waiting for the market to bottom out then this is it. A combination of brisk sales and a sharp decline in inventory are signs of the bottom.

I don’t think prices will go up in the short term. However I do think that there is a huge back log of out of state buyers. When these out of area buyers eventually sell their existing homes, competition may start to drive prices higher. After all the Ocala area has the lowest median home prices in Florida so there is no where to go but up.

Statistics used for this blog post are from the Ocala Marion County MLS and are deemed to be accurate at the time this blog was written but are not guaranteed. All information is time sensitive and subject to change without notice. Home sales are for Marion County only and do not include FSBO, homes sold by builders or by auction that were not  listed on the MLS, commercial properties or vacant land.

There was a huge increase in Ocala area home sales in March. In March there were 455 sales in Marion county. That’s a huge increase from February with 328 sales. It has been years since our multiple listing service had over 400 sales in 1 month.  In addition we saw another decline in the number of active listings. Is this the beginning of a recovery?

Statistics used for this blog post are from the Ocala Marion County MLS and are deemed to be accurate at the time this blog was written but are not guaranteed. All information is time sensitive and subject to change without notice. Home sales are for Marion County only and do not include FSBO, homes sold by builders or by auction that were not  listed on the MLS, commercial properties or vacant land.